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Armenians have been waiting for such an event for years. Their aim has been the acceptance of genocide allegations in the U.S. Congress. They estimated that, although the bill is not of a binding nature, should they have the acceptance by the Parliament of the world's only superpower of the genocide, the rest would come by itself and that even the currently abstaining parliaments of other countries would also follow the lead of the U.S. Congress. The second stage after the acceptance at Parliament is to pressure governments and force Turkey to accept genocide.
I do not believe this plan will work. At the very least I believe it is impossible for all of them to launch themselves on Turkey and force it to accept genocide.
Let's leave this issue alone for a while and return to the main problem at hand.
Foreign Minister Abdullah Gül has concluded his visit to Washington. He is happy with the outcome of his meetings. He made the necessary warnings. As always he explained how relations will endure the blow if the bill passes. He could not go beyond this. That is to say he did not provide the U.S. government with justification to block the bill. Unfortunately the elections in Turkey prevented courageous steps from being taken.
So what will happen now?
The administration of President George W. Bush will be opposing the bill fiercely. However, it is expected beforehand that it will not be very effective.
Supporters of the bill probably anticipate passing the bill at the House of Representatives at the end of March, without waiting for April 24. The reason is simple: Congress takes a break in the first two weeks of April. Thereafter only a week remains before April 24. The Armenian lobby plans to plunge into action at the end of March.
All these assumptions hold true for only now. The situation may change in the future, different conditions may arise. However, according to the current data the possibility of the bill passing at the House of Representatives is around 80 percent.
Those monitoring the U.S. politics closely agree that the possibility of the passing of this bill would be greater in 2008, the elections year, and that Armenians may try this option. On the other hand, it seems Armenians believe they have a pretty good chance this year too.
To sum it up, it seems hard for the Bush administration to block the bill against such pressure, postponing the initiative to 2008.
Then can Turkey neutralize the Armenian plans besides threatening the Bush administration and the Congress and showing how the relationships will be damaged?
Which steps will help the Bush administration to prevent the bill from being passed?
I believe the key remains in Turkey's hands.
Turkey can postpone the bill for a long time if it can take courageous steps.
Turkey can prevent the bill if it wants:
The only weapon that Turkey uses to prevent the bill in both the U.S. administration and the administrations of other countries is “If this bill passes, then our relations will be damaged. The Turkish public will show a great reaction.” These may not be threats but merely the facts. However, they are understood as threats by the other party.
On the other hand, there is a way to change the course of events regarding the genocide argument and, to an extent, receive the support of Armenia.
However, this requires courage.
It requires self-esteem.
Here are some of the suggested initiatives:
– Turkey can enter into talks with Armenia without prerequisites.
Once the talks have been initiated, every issue can be opened and debated. A process that will take years will commence. It can be explained to our Azerbaijani friends that such an approach will also be to their benefit.
– The border gate between Turkey and Armenia can be initially opened only to people.
The gate remains closed to commercial transactions at first. That way, a gesture will be made to Armenians without bothering the Azerbaijanis any further.
– The attempt to form a council of international historians can be repeated.
Armenians oppose such a council. They claim, “The genocide has been accepted by the international arena. Why should we risk it now by joining such a committee?” However, if Turkey comes up with an extensive package and extends a hand of friendship to Armenia with a satisfactory campaign, it may break the opposition of the Armenian community against Turkey.
– Article 301 of the Turkish Penal Code (TCK) can either be abolished completely or major amendments made to annul the current rationale; it could be rewritten more realistically.
Since Article 301 is seen as one the factors in the Hrant Dink murder, an important message will be conveyed in both the domestic and international arena.
We have overlooked the genocide allegations for years. We have acted as though it would just disappear if we paid it no heed. The Armenians, however, imposed their views as the years went by. At the current point we can only escape this trap by taking steps that will surprise the world, by making courageous advancements.
Clearly the prestige we will lose in the international arena in the future will be much graver than a couple of thousands of votes in the elections.
This is “loving your country.”