IMPOVERISHED ARMENIA HUNGRY FOR CHANGE

  But while polls show Armenians support drastic change, analysts say a deeply divided opposition and voter apathy are likely to hand victory to pro-government parties.

  Disillusioned with politics, many Armenians say they aren't planning to vote at all.

  "What's the point? Nothing will change for ordinary people no matter who's in charge. It's all nonsense," said Akhavni Sogoian, a 42-year-old resident of Kond, an impoverished neighborhood on a hilltop overlooking the Armenian capital Yerevan.

  At first glance, Armenia appears ripe for reform. Outside of central Yerevan with its sidewalk cafes and chic boutiques, the country languishes in deep poverty.

  Picturesque mountain villages lie empty, abandoned by the hundreds of thousands of Armenians who have left the country in search of work. Soviet-era factories sit idle, rusting and crumbling.

  Dire poverty:

  Of Armenia's three million people, more than 30 percent live on less than two dollars (1.50 euros) a day. Many more struggle to pay for bare necessities.

  A Gallup poll in March found that more than 50 percent of Armenians believe the country is on the wrong track. In a January survey 93 percent of respondents said Armenia needs "radical" social-economic changes.

  And yet two pro-government parties - the ruling Republican Party of Armenia (HKK) and the Prosperous Armenia party of millionaire and former World Arm Wrestling Champion Gagik Tsarukian - appear set to sweep the election.

  The opposition claims the vote, widely seen as a dress rehearsal for next year's presidential election, will be rigged to ensure victory for the HKK. Its leader, Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian, is considered the top candidate to replace President Robert Kocharian at the end of his second and final term next year.

  Opposition leaders say they are preparing to organize mass protests if they consider the vote unfair.

  "If the elections are falsified, we will fight against the falsification with all possible means.... We will use the power of the people who want to live in a free and democratic country," said Artur Baghdasarian, leader of the Country of Law Party, which polls show is likely to place third in the election after the HKK and Prosperous Armenia.

  Fractured opposition:

  But analysts say the opposition has failed to galvanize support by refusing to unite under a single anti-government banner. Nearly 20 opposition parties are taking part in the election and few are expected to cross the five percent threshold needed to enter parliament.

  Ninety of the Armenian National Assembly's seats are being contested using a proportional system under which seats are assigned based on overall party votes. The assembly's remaining 41 seats will be assigned to the winners of individual constituency elections.

  Pro-government parties deny there will be falsification and say voters will back the government's record of strong economic growth in the face of difficult odds.

  As well as being landlocked and short on natural resources, Armenia is isolated by the closure of two of its four borders. Turkey and Azerbaijan have cut off relations with Yerevan over Armenia's seizure of Nagorny Karabakh and other Azerbaijani territory in the early 1990s.

  Endemic corruption:

  Despite this, the Armenian economy has grown by an average of 10 percent a year over the last decade. The ruling HKK is promising to double GDP growth, exports and average salaries if re-elected.

  But opposition leaders say endemic corruption has allowed only a wealthy few with government connections to benefit from economic growth. They predict Armenians will reject pro-government parties at the ballot box and, if necessary, on the streets.

  But previous attempts to organize post-election demonstrations in Armenia have fizzled and political analyst Alexander Iskandarian said it's unlikely this time will be any different."It will be 10,000-15,000 people on the streets in the beginning but after one or two weeks it will die down," he said. "Armenians want change, but they don't yet believe that participation in politics will accomplish anything."