IT IS TIME FOR THE ARMENIAN GENOCIDE BILL, WHAT SHOULD WE DO?

Last year we discussed a train crash between the European Union and Turkey. While we were still trying to estimate whether the crash would occur, we got survived with only minor injuries.

On this year's agenda there is a possible train crash between Turkey and the United States.

This time the crash is about Armenian genocide allegations.

It has been the same scenario for years. As April nears, the members of the U.S. House of Representatives close to Armenians take action and try to make the U.S. Congress officially accept an Armenian genocide. A bill is sent to the House of Representatives to be voted on followed by the Turkish government's knocking on the U.S. government's door. The Turkish government gives warnings on a wide variety of issues from strategic significance to arms bids. A crisis that lasts weeks takes place on the Ankara-Washington axis, and the current government forestalls the passing of the bill, drawing attention to the prominence of Turkey's strategic being.

It will be the same scenario this year.

However, things took a more serious turn this year. This time, it looks like Armenians can get what they want. Unlike the previous years, the winds are blowing the Armenian way. Nancy Pelosi, who supports the Armenian cause whole-heartedly, was appointed as the speaker of House of Representatives. The number of democrats who approach Armenians sympathetically have increased in the House. More important is the weakening of the White House, regarded as the most powerful establishment supporting Turkey in the House of Representatives. President Bush does not have the influence he used to.

So what will happen now?

Our worst habit is to wait until the last minute to take action. For us to take any measures, we need to first get terrible results. Then we start shouting and uttering threats that we will not grant them the bids and that we will embargo them.

This was how it used to be. We would threaten, get what we want, and then lie down and hibernate. We would not make preparations or develop new policies.

The situation is very different now.

There is little time left before the train crash. It is very hard to get out of the mess with threats now.

Now, we need to wake up, get rid of old habits and come up with a new policy. It is inevitable for us to get rid of the old rhetoric, to look at the issue from a different point of view and to escape the genocide stain.

Let's not wait until the last minute.

We have no other options left but to surprise the world:

Maybe we do not take it seriously, but the Armenian genocide allegations are getting much more serious. This official clamp gets tighter each year. The parliaments of 18 countries have carried resolutions that Turkey has inflicted genocide on Armenians. There are at least as many more on their way.

We should not just be uneasy but we should in fact panic against this scenario. Those parliaments who have resolved that Turkey committed genocide will in the near future decide that it is against the law to deny an Armenian genocide. They will then pressure their governments to apply sanctions on Turkey to force it to accept the genocide. Then paying indemnities to the families of deceased Armenians during those incidents will become a subject for discussion.

Above all, if the bill in the U.S. Congress passes, it will be exemplary and other countries will follow course.

Turkey needs to see this fact and show the courage to take realistic steps. From now on it will be impossible to go anywhere claiming, We are right, the Armenian community is deceiving the world. The international public opinion cannot be affected by broadcasting documentaries, distributing books and organizing conferences.

We have missed that train.

If we would like to get rid of genocide allegations or postpone them for a while, then we need to take measures that will surprise the world.

The choice is clear.

Either the same policies will be followed (i.e. there will be much empty rhetoric and only the Armenian community will be blamed) to end up pressed against the same genocide wall, or completely different approaches will have to be followed and people will be baffled.

I do not personally see any other way to prevent the genocide bill in the U.S. Congress, or any other country's parliament.