LET'S THANK BUSH FIRST BEFORE WE...

We have been accusing and criticizing the Bush administration left and right… For their performance in Iraq and the way that they openly try to break up a country; pretend that the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) nests in northern Iraq do not exist; and prepare the grounds for the formation of an independent Kurdish state in the region. They've deserved everything that's been said and more. Except on one subject… The Armenian project… The readers of this column will remember. Since the beginning of this year, the Armenian project had been hanging over our heads like the Democles sword. The easiest way for the Democrats to punish Bush, once they achieved majority in Congress, was to approve the Armenian project. All “Washington observers” believed that the project would pass with ease until the last few weeks. Despite the non-binding nature of the project, its approval would have dealt a serious blow to Turkey's morale.

  The approval of the genocide accusation by the U.S. House of Representatives would have clinched the accuracy of Armenian allegations, damaging Ankara's international credibility on this issue in an almost irrefutable way. The Bush administration achieved something that had appeared to be  “impossible” only a short while ago. It blocked the project and had it postponed.  The observers in Washington repeatedly qualify this feat as a “never seen before effort.” It was really incredible. The White House exerted an incredible amount of pressure and conducted a very convincing campaign, thanks to which, a disaster in Turkey-U.S. relations was averted at the last minute. The Bush administration anticipated Ankara's reactions and made this effort to salvage its relations with Turkey despite the risk of losing Armenian votes. No matter why he did it, Prime Minister Erdo?an “owes a big thank you” to Bush to be delivered at the first occasion. This postponement will hopefully make Turkey lift its head out of the sand and approach this issue from a brand new angle. Otherwise, the same project will come back on the agenda next year (just before the elections in November 2008), when a no longer effective White House wont be able to stop it no matter what it does. Turkey must make the most of this opportunity…

  Let loose Turkey is entering a very risky period. Today the first face-to-face negotiation starts with U.S. State Secretary Rice, who is expected to arrive in Istanbul to attend a conference that will also be attended by Iraqi speakers. The Istanbul conference was an idea conceived by Abdullah Gül during his term as foreign minister.  The project was launched with Washington's support, although Egypt and some other countries had initially been cool to it.  The objective of the conference, which is to meet for the second time, is to prevent the division of Iraq and to get the neighboring countries that want immediate peace to produce solutions. Despite its already set agenda, the Istanbul conference will be overshadowed by the PKK presence in northern Iraq and Turkey's possible military intervention.

  In official sessions, Iraq's internal issues will be the topic of discussions, whereas in corridors and bilateral meetings, other countries will put pressure on Turkey not to intervene in northern Iraq. This meeting gives Turkey a rare opportunity to expose the tension created by the PKK, as well as the support and protection it receives from the northern Iraqi administration. More importantly, Turkey will be able to show its determination to prevent the PKK from operating in northern Iraq. If there's to be a military operation, it is imperative to make sure that the participant countries understand the situation. To convince them will be to tone down their latter reactions. The conference will also present the opportunity to take the pulse of these countries, which will enable us to reach healthier decisions in the near future.

  There is no doubt that the most important meetings in these series will be the ones held with State Secretary Rice. Washington continues to say, “please avoid military operations and let's settle this issue through negotiations.”  At least, that is the official view… The basic aim of the discussions to be held in Istanbul and Ankara will be to convince Rice. Turkey has to make her understand the meaning of the outrage felt by the Turkish public. We have to show her how impossible this feeling makes it for the AKP government  and the Turkish Armed Forces to try to settle this issue through negotiations without taking other steps. In fact, Turkey has now reached the point of no return or better said, how the PKK pushed Turkey to this point. Even people who have spent their lives in search of peace now want action, let alone those in favor of violence. I am not talking about a large-scale occupation of 30-40,000 soldiers. The number of people who say, “we must do something to hurt these men back,” increase every day. This atmosphere must be described to Rice first while she's here, and then to President Bush on Monday. Neither the government nor the Turkish Armed Forces can convince the public of any other alternative now. The die has been cast. The Bush administration has to see this in order to adjust its attitude accordingly. In other words, Turkey will first thank President Bush about the Armenian project, and then will let loose…