!àáP="justify">Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan is expected to become Armenia’s next president as soon as the formality of counting votes concludes later today. It is expected that the vote will show Sargsyan getting some 51 or more percent against about 21 percent for his nearest contender, former president Levon Ter-Petrosyan. In a message referencing “free and just” elections, President Robert Kocharyan extended congratulations to his successor early this afternoon, as Central Election Commission count showed it mathematically impossible for yet-uncounted ballots to change the outcome.

In taking the presidency Sargsyan assumes the seat of power following a day of voting that challenged definitions of “free and fair”.

It is further expected that Armenia’s third president will take over with the begrudged blessing of western allies who once again for the sake of regional stability, will need to overlook this government’s apparent willingness to dodge democratic fundamentals – open voting and vote buying among them, as witnessed by members of this staff. (Press conferences are scheduled later today by observer missions who monitored yesterday’s process.)

To claim his landslide victory Sargsyan was aided by an army of loyalists who handed out money for votes and were accused of physically assaulting and emotionally intimidating his opposition at polling stations. Complicit, too, was State Police, who dismissed reports of such incidents as “groundless” for investigation. (To be fair, wrongdoing was not unique to the Republican Party. Ter-Petrosyan’s camp was accused of some incidents of intimidation, though in far fewer reports from sources generally sympathetic to the opposition.)

The outcome was further aided through the engagement of a British polling agency that – for the first time in Armenian elections – produced exit poll data.

The British “Populus” analysis group announced – within 45 minutes of polls closing – that Sargsyan was the run-away winner. (Conveniently, their numbers are consistent with those expected to be released by CEC.) Two giant asterisks should be attached to the group’s findings. First: the number crunchers were hired by government-run television. Second: They used data provided by the pro-government Armenian Sociological Association.

A separate poll, conducted by a coalition of Armenian non-governmental organizations, produced a considerably different outlook, giving Ter-Petrosyan 37 percent and Sargsyan 35 – a win for neither.

In a less suspicious contest, the result would likely have been close, probably forcing a Sargsyan-Ter-Petrosyan runoff. (In Armenia’s system, a candidate must get 50 percent plus one vote to win in one round.) But a runoff would not have favored Sargsyan, as his opponent might have inherited the support of other opposition candidates to amass enough votes for a second-round win.

To move from prime minister to president, Sargsyan needed a first-round win that was most easily achieved through means that may not be found in this or any other Election Code.

It is an impressive show of power. It is, too, a demonstrative prediction of what Armenians can expect for, probably, the next decade – a forceful leader with determined aspirations for what is best for his country and for himself.