.E `°="justify">We have been living with this nerve-wracking matter for years. One day in Paris, the next in the US Congress, we see developments concerning the Armenian genocide. Ankara fears approval of a bill and takes measures against it. However, the threat has never been greater. It appears that this time it won’t be so easy to stop.

Mehmet Ali Birand

  For decades, we have been watching the same old movie over and over again.

  Every March, the U.S: Congress wakes up.

  American-Armenians try their best to ensure that the U.S. Congress approves the genocide claims. Such campaigns intensify before every election. Of course Ankara reacts furiously and the Foreign Ministry tries to pressure the White House to intervene. Officials are told how strategically important Turkey is and how bad the passage of such a bill would be for bilateral relations. Delegations are sent and statements are released. These last-minute efforts usually save us until the next year.

  During these fights Turkey's fury is usually directed against the Armenian diaspora. The world is told that the real massacres were perpetrated by Armenians. Some black and white movies are shown as evidence. The private sector and the state bureaucracy talk about the campaigns they will initiate. All the speeches are peppered with I will… or I won't…

  Soon later, everything is forgotten. Until the next year's Armenian attack, no one talks about the matter.

  It's almost always the same scenario. The same happens in France every year, with only a date change.

  The Armenian diaspora in France is stronger than the one in the United States. They also know all the weaknesses of French politicians and act accordingly. They know exactly which buttons to press. In 2001, they made the French parliament approve a bill that stipulates that France accepts a genocide happened. Now they are criminalizing its denial.

  I am sure the Armenian diaspora is very happy with what is happening. However, the matter they seem to be forgetting is that Armenia is on the losing side. From now on, there can be no discussion in Turkey over establishing a dialogue with Armenia or opening the border.

  So what will we do?

  Nothing. We will soon forget about it.

  You'll see that all those who make impressive and exaggerated statements these days will do nothing to follow up their performances. Nothing will be done to formulate a response.

  However, the Armenians won't be forgetting this any time soon.

  They will continue to campaign against Turkey.

  The bill that was passed by the French parliament yesterday will be approved by the senate tomorrow or in a year's time. Then it will be presented to the president. We will all be watching the same things happening over and over throughout this process.

  I see what has happened more as our failure rather than as an achievement on the part of Armenians. If you don't defend what you believe is right, others will come and force their truths on you.

  Let's not blame anyone else.

  We are the ones responsible.

 

Europe passes the test against France:

  As the debates over what the French parliament was doing raged on, all eyes had turned to the European Union. Everyone was wondering how the EU would react to what was going on.

  People were wondering whether the EU and the EU Commission would remain silent.

  The first statement was made by EU Commissioner for Enlargement Olli Rehn.

  Then European Commission President Barosso spoke.

  Both assessed the developments in France correctly.

  Both said the developments in France would affect Turkish-European relations negatively.

  EU-Turkey Parliamentary Committee Joint Chairman Joost Lagendijk and Turkey rapporteur Camile Eurlings objected to what was going on too.

  It was important to hear their voices. If Turkey had been left alone to defend itself in this process, those who didn't believe in the EU project in Turkey would have been proven right.

  This time, the EU defended Turkey against an important EU member.

  The EU Commission's stance here is very important. Those who read this column must have seen me defending the EU Commission as basically a pro-EU institution.

  In the last few days, Turkey must have seen who its true friends are.

 

Who will lose with this law?

  Who will benefit and who will lose if this bill becomes law?

  The only one benefiting from this law will be the Armenian diaspora. This way, they will be able to point to France to try to persuade other EU countries and the United States to do the same. The French parliament's decision will be seen as a symbol. They will pressure the world to accept that the Armenian genocide is a fact.

  One country that will be harmed is France. It will lose any credibility or influence it has over Turkey. Political relations will most probably be suspended. French economic interests will also suffer. Many state tenders that may have gone to French companies will be given to others.

  The biggest damage will be suffered by Armenia.

  The Turkish public's attitude against the genocide claim will become tougher, and any possibility of a formula for an agreement will be gone.

  The opening of the Turkey-Armenia border will be postponed indefinitely.

  Any efforts to establish dialogue between Armenia and Turkey will be suspended.

  Turkey will be hurt, too. France's stance on matters of interest to Turkey will be negative. French tourists will most probably choose another country to spend their holidays in.