!áH€ ="justify">A resolution instructing the US President to declare as “genocide” the Armenian massacres in Ottoman Turkey was recently introduced once more to the House of Representatives, as has been the case every other year. Like the previous ones, the Bush administration has made it clear that it is opposed to the adoption of the resolution. The present Turkish government, also like the previous ones, is exerting great efforts to stop the adoption of the resolution. This time; however, the adoption of the resolution seems more likely than ever. This is because the Democratic Party, which has traditionally been more sympathetic toward the resolution, is in control of the Congress, and Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi reportedly highly supports the resolution.

The horrendous murder of Turkish Armenian journalist and editor-in-chief of Agos weekly Hrant Dink is also said to have increased the number of representatives likely to vote in favor.

The adoption of the resolution by the US Congress will not, however, mean the recognition of the “Armenian genocide” by the US government, since the resolution is of a nonbinding character. The following will happen:

The US Congress will join the list of parliaments that have since 1965 adopted resolutions, reports or declarations of recognition of the “Armenian genocide.” The countries whose parliaments have adopted “genocide” resolutions (in chronological order) so far are the following: Uruguay (1965), Greek Cyprus (1982), Argentina (1993), Russia (1995), Greece (1996), Lebanon (1997), Belgium (1998), Vatican (2000), Italy (2000), France (2001), Switzerland (2003), Canada (2004), Slovakia (2004), Holland (2004), Poland (2005), Germany (2005), Venezuela (2005) and Lithuania (2005). (The Swedish parliament adopted a report to that effect in year 2000, but reverted later on.)

Now we can pose a number of questions. Have the resolutions adopted by the parliaments of countries listed above led to the deterioration of bilateral relations between Turkey and the governments of countries involved? It does not seem possible to give an affirmative answer to this question. Turkey does not, anyway, recognize the Greek Cypriot government. It is certain that Turkish - Greek relations have much improved since 1999. Relations between Turkey and Russia have during recent years improved on an unexpected scale. The level of support for EU membership among the Turkish public has certainly decreased during the last two years, but this surely cannot be explained by the effect of “genocide” resolutions adopted by parliaments of a number of EU member states.
How, then, would the adoption of the resolution by Congress affect bilateral relations between Turkey and the US? It would not be prophetic to say the very negative attitudes among the Turkish public toward the US, chiefly because of the Iraq policies pursued by the Bush administration, are likely to get even stronger, and that this is likely to be more to the detriment of the US than Turkey.

Would the adoption of the resolution by Congress prove that Ottoman Turkey had pursued a genocidal policy toward its Armenian citizens in the period between 1915 - 1923? No, it would not. Some people will continue to insist that the tragedy which led, according to objective sources, to the deaths of at least 650 thousand Ottoman Armenians was the result of a decision by the Ottoman government to exterminate the Armenians. Others; however, will continue to argue that the decision for forced deportation of Armenians was not aimed at their extermination, but that the deaths were the result of famine, disease, and massacres by tribal elements and security forces acting on their own.

Will the adoption of the resolution by Congress help inform the Turkish public at large on the great tragedy that befell the Ottoman Armenians in the 1915 - 16 period? No, it can hardly be expected that it will help improve research and broaden the debate on the history of the final period of the Ottoman Empire. If indeed the Turkish public opinion is more informed today than yesterday about what befell the Ottoman Armenians, the contribution of “genocide” resolutions to this can be said to be close to null.

Would the adoption of the resolution by Congress help the consolidation and strengthening of liberal and pluralist democracy in Turkey as supposedly desired by the West? No, it would not. This, on the contrary, would serve the interests of those reactionary forces in Turkey who would like to pull the country out of the civilized world.

Would the adoption of the resolution by Congress help normalize bilateral relations between Turkey and Armenia, and lead to the establishment of diplomatic relations and opening of borders between the two countries? Surely not, because the position of those in Turkey who are in favor of such normalization will not be strengthened.