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The Turkish decision to give the green light to a cross-border operation as well as possible retaliation to an Armenian genocide resolution adopted last week by the US House Committee on Foreign Relations will in the long term affect Turkey's political and economic reforms, isolating itself from the world, stated both Turkish and Western analysts.

' the world, stated both Turkish and Western analysts.
 
US Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs Dan Fried and US Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Eric Edelman flew on Saturday to Ankara from Moscow, where they had accompanied Rice. 
The current image that Turkey has been portraying -- from the media to the government and the military -- has been the one that does not reflect the common sense that needs to prevail if Ankara does not want to allow itself to be isolated from the world, said a Turkish military analyst.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdo?an said last Friday that he is prepared for a rupture in relations with the United States if his government launches an incursion into northern Iraq in search of outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) terrorists.

"If such an option is chosen, whatever its price, it will be paid. There could be pros and cons of such a decision, but what is important is our country's interests," he said. Erdo?an is expected to seek approval from Parliament most likely on Tuesday to launch attacks against the PKK in Iraq.

Similarly, Turkey reacted both sharply and emotionally to the passage of a resolution by the US House Committee on Foreign Relations on Oct. 10 that labeled World War I events in Ottoman territory as “the genocide of the Armenians.” Nancy Pelosi, speaker of the US House of Representatives, indicated last week that she plans to forward the resolution to the House floor early in November.

A Turkish decision to step up the fight against the PKK including a cross-border operation came a day before the US committee’s adoption of the resolution. The move came following the killing of 13 Turkish soldiers in the Southeast near the Iraqi border. All the two incidents, coming one after another, have added fuel to the already existing Turkish frustration over the unresolved PKK terror as well as the Armenian genocide allegations that have haunted Turkey for around 90 years.

‘Shot in the foot’

Chief of General Staff Gen. Ya?ar Büyükan?t told Milliyet daily yesterday, in reference to the Armenian resolution, that the US has shot itself in the foot.

“If the resolution is adopted by the US House of Representatives, this will cause damage to Turkish-US military relations that cannot be repaired,” Büyükan?t warned in his statement published by Milliyet.

The adoption of the resolution and the possible Turkish operation into northern Iraq came at a time when military-to-military ties between the two NATO allies have seen considerable improvement since the Turkish Parliament’s rejection of a motion on March 1, 2003 to allow the US military to use Turkish territory for its 2003 invasion of Iraq. This has strained Turkish-US military ties.

Western military analysts agreed with Büyükan?t that adoption of the resolution will cause irreparable damage to Turkish-US military ties. But they also cautioned Ankara against the long-term negative effects it can suffer as a result of possible severe retaliation such as the cutting of US access to the ?ncirlik military base and staging a cross-border operation that may result in things getting out of control in the region.

“We are also afraid that Turkey may end up shooting itself in the foot in the long term,” said one Western military analyst.

In the meantime, remarks made by both Erdo?an and Büyükan?t over the Armenian resolution have also attempted to deter the House of Representatives from adopting the so called genocide resolution, said a senior Turkish government official.

Long-term repercussions on Turkey

A Financial Times report last Friday that crude oil prices surged to a fresh high of $84 a barrel on concerns that Turkey might soon launch an invasion of northern Iraq in an attempt to hit PKK terrorists sends a message that Turkey may start feeling the heat economically as well.

“Turkey will lose a lot of friends in Europe if oil prices continue going up because of Ankara’s latest policies,” said another military analyst.

Just as Turkey started doing well in both economic and democratic reforms, the reforms have regressed with its policy of fueling already existing nationalist sentiments in the country, said the same analyst.

Civilian, military competition

In both events -- the Turkish decision to give the green light to a cross-border operation and the strong statements made by Turkish decision makers over possible retaliatory measures against the US -- the competition between the Turkish Armed Forces-led bureaucracy and the political power has emerged.

“This is a tragic situation for Turkey that we are witnessing a competition between the military and the political leadership in creating a war-like situation in the country,” said a Western diplomat.

The Turkish government earlier resisted calls by the Turkish military to send troops into northern Iraq to crack down on PKK terrorists, stating that the PKK issue should first be resolved inside Turkey.

The deaths of 13 soldiers in one incident coupled with increased PKK violence as well as the adoption of the genocide resolution have played into the hands of the Turkish hard-liners, provoking the political leadership to take a tougher stance on both events, said a Western military analyst.

‘The US can do without Turkey, but Turkey will lose a close friend’

 Among possible Turkish measures against the adoption of the so-called genocide resolution is the ending or limiting of US access to ?ncirlik Airbase in southern Turkey, through which almost 60 percent of US air cargo destined for Iraq passes. This will be a move complicating US combat operations in Iraq. Such a move is expected to seriously damage Turkish-US ties as well.

But many Western military analysts recalled that the US immediately shifted its war preparation efforts to other parts of the region when the Turkish Parliament rejected a motion allowing US troops to use more Turkish territory for their invasion of Iraq in 2003.

Similarly, if Turkey introduces retaliatory measures such as ending US access to ?ncirlik, the US will find another way, said a Western diplomat, adding, however, that in the long term, it will be Turkey that will suffer.

“Turkey will lose a close ally, i.e., the US. And the US public will also question Turkish reliability in the relationship,” stated the same diplomat.

The US administration, which has fought against the adoption of the Armenian resolution, has been urging Turkey not to punish the administration and the US public.

US Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs Dan Fried and US Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Eric Edelman both flew from Moscow, where they had accompanied Rice, to Ankara last Saturday in an unexpected visit. They relayed a message to Ankara: Washington has done its best to stop the Armenian resolution, so do not punish it.

Senior US officials also urged that Ankara practice restraint and not overreact to both events.